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Practical Guide

Should I Wait for the Leasehold Reforms or Extend My Lease Now? The 2026 Break-Even Analysis

Reading time: 9 min·Updated June 2026·LeaseVault Editorial Team

The proposed abolition of marriage value under the 2026 Commonhold and Leasehold Reform Bill has created the most consequential decision leaseholders with short leases have ever faced: extend now under existing law, or wait for a reform that could save tens of thousands of pounds? This guide provides the complete break-even analysis — with worked examples in real numbers.

⏰ This decision is time-sensitive Every month your lease remains below 80 years and you have not extended, you are accumulating additional marriage value under current law. If the reforms are delayed beyond your break-even point, waiting will cost you more than extending now.

The Core Dilemma

The Draft Commonhold and Leasehold Reform Bill 2026 proposes to abolish marriage value entirely. For a leaseholder with a £500,000 flat and a 75-year lease, this could reduce their extension premium by £20,000–£40,000. That is an enormous potential saving.

The problem is that the Bill is not yet law. It was in draft consultation as of June 2026. Most commentators expect Royal Assent no earlier than late 2027, with commencement orders for specific provisions potentially stretching into 2028. And in the meantime, your lease is getting shorter — which under current law increases marriage value month by month.

How Marriage Value Increases as Your Lease Shortens

The table below shows approximate marriage value on a £400,000 London flat at different lease lengths, based on current RICS methodology. These are estimates — actual premiums depend on the specific deferment rate, relativity graph, and ground rent applicable to your property.

Lease Remaining Total Premium (est.) of which Marriage Value Mortgage Position
82 years£6,000–£9,000£0Mortgageable ✓
79 years£14,000–£20,000£8,000–£12,000Mortgageable — just ✓
75 years£20,000–£30,000£14,000–£20,000Some lenders cautious ⚠
70 years£30,000–£45,000£22,000–£34,000Difficult to mortgage ✗
65 years£40,000–£65,000£30,000–£50,000Very difficult ✗
60 years£55,000–£85,000£42,000–£66,000Effectively unmortgageable ✗

Estimates based on £400,000 property value, 5% deferment rate, standard RICS relativity graph. Use our free calculator for your specific property.

The Break-Even Calculation

The break-even point is when the saving from waiting (marriage value abolished) exactly equals the extra cost of having a shorter lease. Here is how it works for a specific example:

Worked example: £400,000 flat, 76-year lease
Extend now (current law)
Total premium: ~£22,000
of which marriage value: ~£14,000
Professional fees: ~£5,000
Total cost: ~£27,000
Wait 18 months — reforms in force at 74.5 years
Total premium (no marriage value): ~£11,000
Saving vs current law: ~£11,000
Extra reversionary cost: ~£2,000
Professional fees: ~£5,000
Total cost: ~£16,000
Net saving: ~£11,000 ✓
Wait 18 months — reforms NOT in force
Lease now at 74.5 years
Total premium (current law): ~£27,000
of which marriage value: ~£17,000
Professional fees: ~£5,000
Total cost: ~£32,000
Extra cost vs extending now: ~£5,000 ✗
Wait 3 years — reforms NOT in force
Lease now at 73 years
Total premium (current law): ~£35,000
of which marriage value: ~£24,000
Professional fees: ~£5,000
Total cost: ~£40,000
Extra cost vs extending now: ~£13,000 ✗

The Decision Framework

Based on the analysis above, here is a structured framework for making this decision:

Extend Now if:

  • Your lease is below 75 years — the marriage value accumulation rate is fastest here and the mortgage risk is highest
  • You are planning to sell within 3 years — a short lease will deter buyers and mortgages regardless of future reforms
  • Your lender has flagged the lease length as a condition of your mortgage renewal
  • You are unsure about the reform timeline — which is the only rational assumption given legislative history
  • You need certainty of cost for financial planning purposes

Waiting May Be Reasonable if:

  • Your lease is between 80 and 84 years — you are above the marriage value threshold and reforms may improve your terms before you reach it
  • You have credible information (e.g. from a specialist leasehold solicitor) that commencement of marriage value abolition is within 6–9 months
  • Your property is above £800,000 — the potential saving from abolition is proportionally larger and may justify a shorter wait

Important: Get a Surveyor's Opinion

This analysis uses illustrative figures. Your actual premium depends on your specific property value, exact lease length, ground rent, deferment rate applicable, and the relativity graph used. Always commission a RICS surveyor's formal valuation before making this decision. Our free calculator gives an instant estimate to start the conversation.

What LEASE Says

The Leasehold Advisory Service (LEASE) — the government-funded advisory body — published guidance in early 2026 stating that leaseholders with leases below 80 years should not wait for marriage value abolition unless they have specific professional advice indicating the commencement date is imminent. LEASE noted that "the risk of delay outweighs the potential saving in the majority of cases" given legislative uncertainty.

The Resale Consideration

There is a dimension beyond the premium calculation that often gets overlooked: resale value. A flat with a short lease trades at a discount — typically 5–15% below equivalent long-lease properties, depending on the lease length. If you plan to sell before the reforms take effect, your buyer will either demand a price reduction or require you to complete the extension before exchange. Either way, the short lease affects your sale price — potentially more than the difference in extension costs.

Frequently Asked Questions

In most cases no. Marriage value abolition under the 2026 Bill is not yet law and has no confirmed commencement date. Meanwhile, every month below 80 years increases marriage value payable under current law. The break-even point — where waiting saves more than it costs — typically requires reforms to be in force within 12 months. Given the legislative timeline, this is unlikely for most leaseholders.

On a £400,000 flat with a 75-year lease, marriage value currently adds approximately £10,000–£20,000 to the extension premium. If you waited for abolition, this element would be zero. However, waiting also means your lease gets shorter, increasing the reversion component. The net saving depends entirely on how quickly the reforms are implemented.

Every year of delay means one less year on your lease. Below 80 years, this increases marriage value faster than it decreases under most scenarios. On a £500,000 flat at 76 years, waiting two extra years to 74 years could add £8,000–£15,000 to your premium under current law — potentially more than the saving from abolition.

Yes — if your lease is marginally below 80 years (79–75 years) and there is a credible signal that commencement is within 6 months, waiting may save more than the incremental cost of a shorter lease. If your lease is above 80 years and unaffected by marriage value, the decision is less urgent.

The 80-year rule is the threshold below which marriage value becomes payable. Above 80 years, no marriage value is owed. Below 80 years, marriage value can add £10,000–£80,000+ depending on property value and remaining term. The 2026 Bill proposes to abolish it, but this is not yet in force.

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Important Notice

General information only. Not legal advice. Consult a RICS surveyor and specialist solicitor before acting.

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